Friday, January 2, 2009

Canadian Econoblogosphere Forecasting Contest 2009!

Time to look stupid. Rules:
1. Unconditional point-forecasts only, for these 5 macroeconomic variables (you can do others as well if you like).
2. Only those who have made a forecast will be allowed to laugh at others' forecasts in January 2010.
3. No prize for the best forecast (other than bragging rights).
4. "Best" forecast is defined as that which minimises the following loss function:
Loss = sum of absolute value of [(forecast-actual)/latest available end of 2008 actual].

CPI, November 2009, year over year: +1.1%
Unemployment, November 2009: 7.4%
US/Can exchange rate, December 31 2009: US$ 0.86
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, December 31 2009: 0.5%
TSX, December 31 2009: 11,250

Feel free to make your own stabs. Or just tell me why I'm wrong.

1 comment:

Matt Nolan said...

I wish there were more economics blogs in NZ so we could do the same thing :P