I have predicting budgetary difficulties for the province, so I was wondering what sort of adjustments had been made to the numbers due to the recent slide in oil prices. Surprisingly, the forecast for the remainder of the fiscal year is for oil to trade at $40. The government manages to post excellent numbers given that oil had averaged $105 over the first eight months of the fiscal year.
I suspect a full year at $40 would eliminate the surplus, more or less. Still, we're probably one of the brightest economic spots in the world right now. Disposable income growth of 5.8% this year, housing starts showing double-digit increases, etc.
Report is here. Off to my last class of the first term.
POSTSCRIPT: Simon was nice enough to leave a good comment which I missed:
Based upon what we understand today, if oil prices continue at below US$60 per barrel, we could be facing a deficit of several hundred million dollars next year, and could potentially be facing deficits in the years to come.