Saturday, August 23, 2008

Commodity Price Volatility

One thing that has confused me is the heteroskedastic tendencies inherent in the time series chart for oil, copper, etc, etc, etc. Surely in a world where information has become more and more plentiful, shouldn't market participants move closer and closer to the Hotelling solution?

It just struck me that while information certainly has increased, the ability to react to said information has increased by a much larger factor. Setting a computer program to automate trades, being in constant contact with the rest of the world via telecommunications, so on and so forth - growth in capability to adjust to new information must have exceeded the growth in acquiring information.

Ergo, more volatility. At least, I'm satisfied.

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