Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Leading Indicators

Statistics Canada's leading indicators report looks good.

Notables include predominately an increase of 3.1% in manufacturing (manufacturing!) orders in Januaray from December, but also an upwards revision to the December data in several unmentioned areas.

The monthly release of the Canadian Economic Observer contains reminders of the good things, but no new data, I think.

Remember the unemployment rate went back down in January, and inflation is down so there's room for monetary stimulus, even if we probably don't need it.

DIGRESSION: On the topic of inflation, there was an interesting paper released by the Bank recently about the cost of pushing inflation down below 2%. One conclusion is that this will result in us flirting with the lower bound of nominal interest rates much more often, with accompanying negative consequences. Hadn't thought about that before.

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