Friday, January 4, 2008


I would be hesitant to ascribe any real meaning to the Iowa results - they are, after all, the product of an obsolete system in an unrepresentative state - but looking at how the prediction markets reacted, it seems like there's an awful lot of uncertainty in who is going to be nominated:

Given the massive volume of polls that had come out, a move of this magnitude in the market says to me that a lot can happen. Though I guess political markets are the first place one looks for animal spirits.

NOTE: Image from Intrade. Click to expand.

UPDATE: If anyone knows a good text that covers Hamiltonians, please feel free to leave a comment. I was surprised that Simon and Blume had nothing.

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